Last month, the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration (“NHTSA”) released its national estimates for 2023 fatal motor vehicle accidents. Read, National Center for Statistics and Analysis. (2023, December). Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2023 (Report No. DOT HS 813 561). National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (“NHTSA Report”)
The NHTSA announced an encouraging finding of a small decrease (3.6%) in the number of people who died from injuries sustained in traffic crashes last year. That’s good news. Nevertheless, it is vital for everyone in our part of the country to note that within this overview, different states tell a different story.
Illinois, for instance, showed almost no change whatsoever in its projected fatality rate (1.22 (2022) versus 1.23 (2023)). Indiana, meanwhile, tallied an optimistic drop of 5.7% in traffic fatalities from 2022 to 2023. See, NHTSA Report Table 3.
Of course, governmental authorities, safety agencies, and those advocating for accident victims and their loved ones recognize that all these numbers remain much too high. Accordingly, the cry to make our roads safer remains. After all, it was not that long ago that Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg declared traffic fatalities to be a national public health crisis. Read, Public Crisis Declared by DOT Secretary Pete Buttigieg as Traffic Fatalities Have Largest Increase Since 1975.
Blaming Driver Error for Almost Every Accident: It is Not “94 Percent”
Learning how to lower traffic deaths in the United States has all too often resulted in experts pointing the finger at drivers and citing driving error as the reason for most every motor vehicle accident fatality.
Drilling down into these studies, the finger pointing goes toward things like distracted driving; drowsy driving; and speeding as common reasons for untimely roadway deaths.
It is true that these are well-established causes for traffic fatalities. However, it is also important to recognize that a popular reference to a statistic that human driver mistakes are the reason for ninety-four percent (94%) of all these deaths is simply wrong.
Where Did the 94% Statistic Come From?
Back in February 2015, NHTSA published a report that included the following statement:
“Several facets of crash occurrence were investigated during data collection, namely the precrash movement, critical pre-crash event, critical reason, and the associated factors…. The critical reason, which is the last event in the crash causal chain, was assigned to the driver in 94 percent (±2.2%) of the crashes.”
Since that time, this single statistic (94% of fatal crashes due to driver error) has been regurgitated time and again by government agencies, members of the news media, and industry leaders (particularly those invested in aspects of autonomous vehicle technology).
These include such respected sources as: the United States Department of Transportation; the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials; The Governors Highway Safety Association; various state Departments of Transportation; and the National Center for Rural Road Safety. For details, read the excellent survey of this issue in “The 94% Error: We Need to Understand the True Cause of Crashes,” written by Don Kostelec and published by Streetsblog USA on October 14, 2020.
NTSB Warns The Statistic Is Wrong: Driving Complexities Must Be Addressed
Problem is: it is incorrect. The 94% reference is flat out wrong, and this has been confirmed by, among others, Jennifer Homendy, chair of the National Transportation Safety Board. Read, “NTSB chief to fed agency: Stop using misleading statistics,” written by Hope Yen and Tom Krisher and published by the Associated Press on January 18, 2022.
The NTSB Chair warns:
“[s]imply put: It’s not true. Crashes are more complex than that and we need to understand all those factors to stand a chance at reducing traffic deaths in the United States.”
Read, “Famous Statistic Blaming Car Crashes on Human Error Is Wrong,” written by Aaron Gordon and published by VICE on January 20, 2022, which includes an image of the October 3, 2021 tweet containing the above-quoted language from NTSB Chair Homendy.
Investigation Intricacies of Motor Vehicle Accidents
After a catastrophic or fatal motor vehicle accident, investigations into the event will be undertaken by various parties independently of each other: there will be law enforcement (police) at the scene; government agencies at the state and/or federal level; insurance adjusters representing policyholders who may have liability for the crash; and advocates for the accident victims and their loved ones.
These investigations will have different approaches, and some may focus on different aspects of the incident. The victim’s advocates may need accident reconstruction experts as well as technological or mechanical expertise in addition to possible human factor (ergonomic) scientists and researchers.
Results may reveal many things that go far past a simple finger-pointing of driver error.
For instance, consider the following:
- Speed limits are sometimes simply too high for a section of roadway, and this can be a contributing factor to a deadly crash. The driver may have been operating within a legal speed that experts confirm is dangerously high for that street or highway;
- There may be expectancy violations involving things like highway hypnosis on a long stretch of interstate where fallen debris from another vehicle appears in a lane without adequate response time; see Driving, the Brain, and Serious or Fatal Injuries: The Neuroscience of Driving in Car Accidents and Truck Crashes;
- The roadway design may invite accidents, as for example the notoriously perilous intersection of Riverside Boulevard and West 70th Street in Chicago, as detailed in “Pedestrians Struck by Car Again on Problem Stretch of Riverside Boulevard,” written by Daniel Katzive and published by West Side Rag on March 4, 2024; and
- The design of the vehicle itself may contribute to fatal collisions, as for instance the huge pickup trucks that are extremely popular today where (1) their “… increasing dimensions … may be contributing to the deadliness of crashes….” while (2) “…pickups are less likely than cars and SUVs to have standard safety features…some pickups…don’t offer them at all.” Read, “The Hidden Dangers of Big Pickup Trucks,” written by Keith Barry and published by Consumer Reports on June 18, 2021.
The Dangers of a Deadly Traffic Accident and Determining What Happened
The recent NHTSA fatality crash estimates for 2023 warn us that while the risk of a fatal motor vehicle accident is still very high in this country, it is a particularly great danger for those driving in Illinois and the Chicagoland area.
Illinois has more roadway miles than any state other than Texas and California. The NHTSA fatality rates for these roads remains essentially unchanged in the latest NHTSA tallies despite efforts to curtail crashes at the local, state, and federal levels. The risk of being involved in a severe or deadly traffic collision in the Chicago Metro Area or elsewhere in Illinois is shockingly high.
And it is very easy for “driver error” to be used in a cavalier manner to explain away so many of these tragedies. The debunked 94% statistic remains in the minds of many. Realities must be revealed through careful factual analysis of the particular event, where experts can provide answers as to all the complications that caused one or more people to lose their lives in a collision or crash.
Driving is a very complicated matter. Things like manufacturers’ vehicle designs; infotainment and GPS systems; speed limits; transportation system designs; and products involved in the vehicle itself can all play a part in a horrific and deadly event. Is there a reason that the Chevy Silverado is the motor vehicle model most often involved in traffic fatalities here in our part of the country?
There are laws in place that work to help accident victims and their loved ones in the aftermath. They can be based upon negligence; premises liability; defective products; failures to warn; wrongful death; and more. Damages may range from medical care and psychological trauma to pain and suffering; funeral expenses, and in some matters, there may even be punitive damages to be considered.
For more on fatalities and motor vehicle accidents, read:
- Traffic Fatalities in Chicagoland: High Risk of Deadly Chicago Car Crash
- Shocking New Fatal Crash Statistics: 52% Jump in Deadly Commercial Truck Crashes
- 100 Deadliest Days for Teen Drivers: Risk of Fatal Crash Skyrockets in Summer Months
- Illinois and Indiana: Both Top 10 States for Most Truck Crash Fatalities
- Tire Failure and Fatal Crashes in Indiana and Illinois: the Legal Duty of Tire Maintenance
- Defective Car Parts & Liability for Fatal Crashes and Serious Injuries in Illinois and Indiana.
Here in Illinois and Indiana, extensive investigation into all too many motor vehicle accidents reveal they happened due to things other than a single mistake by a driver. It is not true that almost every fatality (94%) is caused by driver error, and each of these heartbreaking cases deserves individual consideration to learn their root causes. Please be careful out there!
